The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has projected a victory for the main opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) with Former President John Dramani Mahama as its flagbearer in the 2024 general elections.
This is largely driven by declining living standards, limited job opportunities, and poor public services, the EIU said.
In its 2024 forecast for Africa, the research and analysis division of The Economist Group said “In South Africa, we expect the African National Congress (ANC), led by Cyril Ramaphosa, the country’s president, to win the legislative election in 2024 by a narrow margin, but there is a strong possibility that the party will fall short of the 50% mark needed for a majority.
“Under such circumstances, the ANC will try to co-opt some smaller parties, rather than the main opposition groups, to stay in power. The probability of a coalition will continue to rise as enduring socioeconomic challenges erode the ANC’s support. Ghana is likely to experience a transfer of power from the ruling New Patriotic Party to the opposition National Democratic Congress, largely driven by declining living standards, limited job opportunities and poor public services.
“An ongoing authoritarian crackdown in Tunisia will see the incumbent win a carefully managed presidential election in 2024, prompting further civil unrest.”
The EIU further forecasts that Africa will be the world’s second-fastest-growing major region in 2024, just behind Asia, which will be propelled by China and India.
It said almost all African states will post a positive growth story, with war torn Sudan and struggling, Equatorial Guinea the only economies that look set to contract in 2024. Indeed, 12 of the world’s 20 fastest-growing economies in 2024 will be in Africa, and African real GDP is forecast to grow by 3.2% in 2024, up from 2.6% in 2023.
East Africa, encompassing Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania and the DRC, will
once again prove to be the most dynamic part of the continent in terms of economic growth. The services sector will continue to play a major role in driving the economies of East Africa, including resurgent travel, tourism and hospitality, resilient transport and logistics, and vibrant financial and telecommunications industries.
Resource-intensive economies and major commodity exporters will continue to do well given the intense competition and high prices for Africa’s supplies of hydrocarbons, mining sector output and agricultural produce. Substantial investment will continue to flow into Africa’s energy sector ventures, as well as minerals and metals that are crucial to the global energy transition and digital transformation.