Diesel prices are expected to record a modest increase in the second pricing window of August, while petrol and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices are projected to decline, according to the latest market outlook from the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC).

COMAC estimates that diesel prices could rise by about 1.39 per cent, while petrol and LPG prices are expected to fall by approximately 2.90 per cent and 0.93 per cent respectively.

The industry body attributed the mixed outlook to continued uncertainty surrounding tensions between the United States and Iran, as well as movements in international crude oil prices.

It said government and industry measures aimed at cushioning consumers from higher diesel prices were expected to continue mitigating the impact at the pumps.

COMAC also pointed to recent gains by the Ghana cedi as a potential source of relief for consumers, particularly if the local currency maintains its appreciation in subsequent pricing windows.

Global oil prices remain volatile

Average international crude oil prices increased by 2.02 per cent to $90.41 per barrel in mid-August, with geopolitical tensions and possible disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz contributing to the rise.

Prices of refined petroleum products, however, moved in different directions during the period.

Diesel prices rose by 2.86 per cent, while petrol and LPG prices declined by 5.46 per cent and 2.54 per cent respectively.

COMAC said diesel prices were further pressured by geopolitical developments, including another Ukrainian attack on a Russian refinery and a Houthi attack on a Saudi Arabian refining facility.

Cedi movement could influence pump prices

On the foreign exchange front, the cedi depreciated by 1.20 per cent against the US dollar to GH¢11.80 between July 7 and August 11, based on bank averages.

The local currency has since recovered, with the Bank of Ghana’s rate standing at GH¢10.98 to the dollar on August 14.

COMAC said sustained improvements in the supply of foreign exchange could support further appreciation of the cedi, potentially reducing the local cost of imported petroleum products in future pricing windows.

NPA adjusts price floors

The outlook broadly reflects the latest price floors announced by the National Petroleum Authority (NPA) for the second pricing window of August.

The price floor for petrol has been reduced by GH¢0.61 per litre, from GH¢14.53 to GH¢13.92, while the floor for LPG has fallen by GH¢0.08 per kilogram, from GH¢11.06 to GH¢10.98.

Diesel, however, has recorded an increase, with its price floor rising by GH¢0.22 per litre from GH¢14.97 to GH¢15.19.

The adjustments could offer some relief to petrol and LPG consumers, although diesel users may continue to face increased fuel-related costs.

The NPA price floors do not represent the final prices at fuel stations, as Oil Marketing Companies determine their pump prices after factoring in their margins and other applicable charges.

The latest adjustment follows government’s decision to reduce the regulatory margin on diesel by GH¢2 per litre for one month. The intervention helped lower the diesel price floor from GH¢16.97 to GH¢14.97 during the first pricing window of August.

For motorists and businesses, COMAC’s latest outlook highlights the uneven pressure facing the fuel market, with cedi appreciation providing some potential relief while elevated international crude and refined-product prices continue to pose risks, particularly for diesel consumers.